Everton v Man City Tonight!

So, here is my first odds forecast, for tonight's prem game...

Here is a grid of the odds for all score combinations up to 9 apiece...

       x:0     x:1  x:2   x:3  x:4  x:5  x:6  x:7  x:8  x:9 

0:y  19/1   8/1  10/1 13/1 32/1 74/1 207/1 768/1 2499/1 9999/1  

1:y  17/1   9/1  9/1 15/1 28/1 70/1 226/1 832/1 1999/1 9999/1  

2:y  42/1   19/1 19/1 31/1 68/1 146/1 285/1 1666/1 - 9999/1  

3:y  151/1 59/1 61/1 92/1 166/1 369/1 1110/1 - 9999/1 -  

4:y  344/1 262/1 178/1 434/1 999/1 1999/1 3332/1 4999/1 - -  

5:y  2499/1 1110/1 908/1 1666/1 3332/1 4999/1 - - - -  

6:y  4999/1 4999/1 - 9999/1 - - - - - -  

7:y  9999/1 - - - - - - - - -  

8:y  - - - - - - - - - -  

9:y  - - - - - - - - - -  

And here are some summary odds: 

Home win: '44/10', 

Away win: '1/2', 

Score draw: '5/1', 

No score draw '19/1'

These are based on 10,000 modeled games and 5000 particles per team. Interested to know if there are other odds people would be interested in.

I compared with Bet365 odds, which are generally fairly similar. My numbers seem to like the idea of a home win slightly more than Bet365. 1 nil to Everton looks like a value bet (although odds are long).

Health warning: I am still validating this model, although I believe the approach is generally solid!

*** Update*** the game finished 0-2 (win for Man City). It stood at 0-1 until injury time, which would have tallied with my most likely result