The game is a foot

Well, I tried to run my trace. Something isn't quite working. First problem - I couldn't verify what the ref'd blog post said about the coin movement from the quoted gox address to the point where "interesting things" happened. In fact the vast trace I produced (70mb when I stopped it) showed no outputs on the  trail from MtGox greater than 100 coins (I'm expecting to see around 400k coins flowing). So... I just looked upstream from the "interesting things" transaction using bitcoin info and found a really interesting flow through what looks like an obfuscater, leading back to a MtGox wallet. The flow starts with this transaction:

31066fbaa7dbfcbde6f7053d5f825c39d0dc3eeafb1fdc9acef4b146e422bf1

from the MtGox address 1LNWw6yCxkUmkhArb2Nf2MPw6vG7u5WG7q to address 1Cj5kAeGK5CQSubY1Bk6HbGdweq15eJtH9. I'm not sure why my app couldn't find this path. Anyway, I'll rerun the trace from there and see where I get to. Could be the obfuscater defeated the trace (a bit worrying!)  Latest: Okay - I just did a trace through the latter address. It took half an hour or so. This address was a useful filter as it only has one transaction in and one out... effectively a throw-away address used just the once to pass the big coin trail through. Most of the key addresses on this trail have similar - suggesting this was part of the movement plan. The trace runs to around 1m transactions so it will take a little work to extract the useful info. I may post it raw on google docs for others to play around with it. Watch this space tomorrow.